The first was the way in which the size and shape of the ozone hole tends to move around from year to year. In many respects this is due to the general circulation of air currents which move chemicals in and out of different regions of the stratospheric layer both vertically, as a function of convection currents from the ground up, and horizontally, as a function of fluid dynamics between latitudes.

The second was the concept of diamagnetism, in which molecules in a substance are repelled equally from both the north and south ends of a magnet. Exploratorium’s grape experiment is a really good example of this principle in practice and is a much more clear example than what is in Wikipedia.

The third thing was the way in which the earth’s magnetic field  is currently assumed to have taken shape. We know from the geological record that the earth’s poles do shift on average every 200,000 years and they we are well overdue for one by about 500,000 years. If in fact the disorderly-flip theory is correct, then chaos theory suggests that as a new magnetic field starts to form it will do so on an ever increasing rate of progression. Once the field strength reduces to about 20% of theoretical maximum it should flip and start to rebound and stabilize again.

Now – here is what I was considering: Maybe one of the influencing factors in the creation of the ozone hole is not just all the chemical by-products we are pumping in the air (this relationship is well known) but is also a function of this magnetic pole shift. My theory here is that as new magnetic fields start to develop, the field strength near the equatorial regions will be the first to be impacted. We should see a decline in magnetic field strength as the new field starts to superimpose itself over the old one.

In fact this is sort of what we are seeing currently  with the lowest point of field strength origin being in the lower part of Brazil. Could this be a sign of a few magnetic field developing? I don’t know but let’s assume for a moment that the decrease in magnetic field strength near the equatorial regions is due at least in part to a cyclical change deep under the Earth’s mantle. 

In this case the magnetic field strength at the poles would increase relative to those near the equator. This doesn’t mean that the poles have suddenly become stronger – only that the overall distribution is now no longer even.

Ozone however is a known diamagnetic compound. So if the relative strength of the earth’s magnetic field were to suddenly increase at the poles and not so much near the equator, then shouldn’t that suggest a natural migration of ozone away from the poles and more towards the Earth’s mid-regions? I would suggest that it does and in part what we are seeing at the poles is a natural migration of ozone towards the equatorial regions rather than an overall depletion of ozone which just happens to manifest uniquely at the magnetic poles.

This also may be an explanation why the hole at the southern pole is so pronounced where as the ozone hole at the north pole is not as well developed. Looking at the diagram from Geomay we can see the magnetic field in the northern reaches is more evenly disbursed which means there is far less of a differential between the north pole down to the equator than then is from the south pole up.

Assuming that there is in fact a relationship here, there is another interesting prospect that we may be witness to in our lifetimes. Consider that the Earth’s magnetic field has experienced a known reduction by 10% since 1845. Chaos theory suggest that self organizing systems do so on an exponentially incremental basis. Essentially the closer we get to the tipping point the faster we go. Sort of like pouring water from one pitcher into another – as we tip the first pitcher up, the water flows at a slow rate and so the first half of the jug empties much much slower than the last half of the pitcher.

Now consider that a 20% reduction in overall magnetic field strength seems to be the tipping point. We are at least half way there. That suggests we will cover the ‘distance’ to the remaining 10% in under 150 years. If chaos theory holds that could mean we are in the early stages of a pole shift which could occur as early as 15-20 years from now.

Keep in mind there are a lot of ‘ifs’ in this conjecture however it seems probable that there is a relationship and if so, then ozone movement may be an early warning indicator of deeper changes occurring within the earth’s core. One way that this could be partially confirmed is to sample the density of ozone at different spots where there are also magnetic field stations and see if the density of ozone is inversely proportional to the field strength or at least is relatively proportional based on the magnetic lines of force.

If it is then there is a good chance that the ozone hole is in part a natural phenomena and that we are simply witnessing, in part, one of the great natural spectacles of our time.

Now I don’t know about you but a 250m hunk of rock spinning towards the earth with only 5 days notice doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. I mean – can you remember anything about this being in the media? We aren’t exactly talking dino-extinction here but at the same time we aren’t talking about a little tap on the shoulder here either.

Now what got me started on this again was a quick scan of CNN’s affiliate KTVU who reportedthat scientists are concerned about our preparedness bearing in mind that “A rock the size of the UC Berkeley’s Memorial Stadium is currently headed our way.” Huh? What rock? I can only assume that they are referring to Apophis which is scheduled to have two very close approaches: one in 2029 and another in 2036.

The one in 2029 is the one however expected to cause most of the issues. This one, based on current estimates, will pass between the earth and the moon, within reach of a number of geosynchronous communication satellites. The orbit isn’t well enough understood to know if it will hit any of those nor what effect such a collision may have on Apophis’ orbit. Beyond this is a further uncertainty factor that only additional measurements in 2013 will be able to unfold in addition to whether in 2029 Apophis will manage to thread a very narrow keyhole window that would most certainly result in a direct hit in 7 years time.

From a cultural perspective, let’s assume for a minute that NASA is yanking everyone’s chain and in fact Apophisis set to collide with the Earth on April 14, 2029. Do you tell anyone? At 270m in diameter it kinda makes the current US Financial Crisis a bit irrelevant doesn’t it? Do you carry on paying your bills? Do you throw away the moral code that governs a civil society? Do you embrace or abandon God? Considering the blast would be the equivalent to 100,000 Hiroshima bombs, this isn’t exactly something that would one effect the local area of impact.

Scientists are calling for a plan – something that could be put into effect in short order should we find another TU24 asteroid with 5 days to spare. On the basis of what happened last January I don’t see that call as being unreasonable. Especially if you consider how much preparation time NASA and other space agencies say they need to get a rocket off the ground never mind closing the gap in sufficient time in order to avoid a ‘confrontation’.

Herein however lies a fundamental problem. The most cost effective solution would be to have a space based system which is pre-armed with nuclear missiles. I say cost effective only because we have enough rockets and warheads to blow ourselves up several times over. It seems to be the nature of Governments to cop-out when faced with large issues that have remote possibilities to go for the ultra cheap solution under the assumption that the fallout (no pun intended) will occur on someone else’s watch.

My concern is that such calls to action would inevitably lead to the weaponization of space under the pre-text of benign intent. Considering the human race’s pre-occupation with killing each other, I’m thinking that while the call by these scientists is a good one, for the right reasons, that any such proposals need to be thought out extremely carefully. The path to many of today’s more interesting plagues has be fraughtwith good intentions which were never the intent of the original creators. Ideas become corrupted when opportunities for power and control become involved. Open the door just a little and people will find ways to open it the whole way.

You can think of this another way – how many asteroids has the earth been hit with over the past 100 years which caused significant damage? 1 Maybe? In contrast how many wars have we had in that period of time? As much as I really like the idea of supporting an Earth defensive shield against rouge asteroids, I think personally that I would rather take my chances with the asteroids and convince the commercial section that there ‘maybe gold in them there hills’. Mining the largest asteroids for raw natural resources may end up being a far more effective solution in the long run than figuring out ways to blowing them up or pushing them off course.

So for example, wouldn’t it be neat if the impact was more on the order of say 65 million years ago rather than 3.9 Billion. Narrowing down the age and comparing it to impacts on Earth and other locations could potentially lead to a map which may establish whether there are certain danger zones around the galaxy where asteroid activity is generally more intense than at other times. We tend to think of our region of space as being fairly benign but since we are constantly moving at 600km/s there really is no guarantee that the near earth objects in our path today will be the same ones that will be there tomorrow.

Beyond this though is another aspect of geological behaviour that may be worth exploring. The Chicxulub meteor impact which was originally considered to have wiped out the dinosaurs may have led to another interesting phenomena such as the swelling of magma deep in the earth’s core. Its sort of like popping a water balloon. You push on one side and water comes gushing out at a 90 degree angle to the direction of the force.

We sort of see this with the revelation that the Deccan Traps lava beds in India were formed within 300,000 years after the Chicxulub meteor and are roughly at a 90 degree rotation to the meteor’s impact. These eruptions are now widely attributed to have been the final straw the doomed the dinosaurs. However, when we compare this to the Mars’ impact – a similar pattern seems to emerge. Leveling approximately 40% of the Martian surface, massive volcanoes seem to have sprung up from just around the impact area – something that would be consistent with the application of force to an area surrounded by weak spots.

The question now is – which came first – the meteoroid or the volcano? The suggestion in the article is that the volcano came first but I have a sneaking suspicion that when push comes to shove (okay – bad joke I admit) that both the Martian volcanoes and the impact crater itself are going to far less old than what is currently assumed.  – K