Time Odyssey

The idea of quantum computing gets into some very strange behavioursthat supposedly will just simply blow away the processing power of today’s computers. Specifically, today’s computers are eventually going to run into a problem whereby the upper limit of computational power will be dictated by the speed of light. Because a quantum computer can express so much more information in the form of Qubits, quantum computing will vastly expand the processing power without the need to exceed the speed of light (such as it is in quantum physics).

Why is this important? Well, from a military standpoint, the advent of quantum computers will essentially change the face of nuclear deterrents such that the MAD of opposing superpowers will no longer be determined by how many nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles one country has over another. Both China and the US have shown a peculiar bent towards proving that a missile screen is possible through the shooting down of satellites and other  missiles. The trick however has never been a matter of shooting down just one. The trick has always been how to shoot down 5000-10000all coming in at the same time. While the various militaries have always maintained an edge in technological innovation which is anywhere from 5-10 years ahead of that commercially available to the general marketplace, the computing power necessary to shoot down 5000 missiles without some type on on-board AI computing systems is still beyond the grasp of what is currently available at a reasonable cost. Even it if were, simple computer programmed mechanisms to create chaotic flight paths may be enough to circumvent any type of a screen.

Quantum computers however level that playing field allowing for on-board AI systems which may be intelligent enough (i.e. contain fast enough processors) to provide an effective missile defense such that it wouldn’t matter whether the number of nuclear missiles fired was 5000, or 50000. So long as the number of interceptors were greater than the number of attacking missiles, an effective screen could potentially work.

This would, in effect, substantially change the nature of warfare such that direct head on encounters would no longer represent the dominant form of engagement even against a weaker opponent in the long term. The reason is that, within reason, any given technology can only remain secret for so long before it becomes ‘public’ knowledge. Which means there is a competitive edge towards the major powers for a given period of time (say roughly 50 years) after which you would have to assume everyone possesses the same defensive capability. By which point your political and military strategy should have already changed to compensate for the fact that you now need a more effective means of circumventing an opponents defenses.

The bottom line on all this is that this technological nuclear nightmare we’ve created for ourselves, which hasn’t gone away by any stretch of the imagination, is in fact something we will get over without blowing ourselves up in the process. Yes, that is a bit of a stretch, but given the pace of innovation my feeling is that our next doomsday scenario is not going to come from countries suddenly firing nukes at each other in mindless first strike or retaliatory agression regardless of the continued threat from terrorists getting their hands on nuclear material. – K